Steady Growth

Steady growth... Or the lack of it, in fact. Steady growth is characterized by a stable economy that is doing well in general, growing at a reasonable rate that doesn’t really bring any unexpected surprises or overly enormous amounts of wealth pouring in. What steady growth does bring is a solid forecast of what probably will and won’t happen in an economy, upcoming developments, and no shocks or surprises in general.

But when I see the current levels of growth in the gulf region right now, it starts to get a little bit scary. Growth levels have become so incredibly intense, developments emerging one after the other, a continuously expanding flow of money and capital, foreign investment blowing up in the region, and so on. During the past ten years, I’ve seen areas which used to be completely barren turn into major commercial centers, full rural roads transformed into busy downtown streets, and non-impressive skylines develop into silhouettes of huge buildings, monuments and skyscrapers. The amount of money being invested in the region has started to reach alarming levels; in just the past five years alone, I’ve seen some people I know go from living paycheck to paycheck, to driving Ferrari’s and owning private property, with a lot of cash to spare. I’ve seen companies reach growth levels of over 800% percent, and these aren’t small companies that only need small amounts of capital to grow. No. These are companies that originally started off with a few million dollars worth of capital in the first place.

Everywhere you go there seems to be some sort of construction, some sort of magnificent development, land being reclaimed to build multi-million ideas, or new investments bringing in the most unexpected projects. And its also bringing a lot of good for a lot of people. Just walk around one of the gulf cities on a typical day; people are getting a lot richer and it shows, whether it’s the Bentley and BMW cars that stand out, or the people eating out every day at the finest restaurants, or the huge oversized luxury houses that are being bought, it shows. Sure, we had rich people 10 or 20 years ago, but they weren’t near as many as there are now.

So this must be a good thing right? Well, sure, if you’re on the receiving end of it. But expand your stream of thinking and let’s look at this on a larger scale. Sure, the people involved in the investments, real estate, and any of the other fields that seem to be generating unbelievable cash flows are better off. But not all of them. And these people are only a small percentage of the population of this region. Sure, the benefits extend to other parts of the economy, such as restaurants selling more, more money so the airline companies benefit from excess travel, etc. But again, this doesn’t affect everyone. What it does do, however, is bring inflation with it. Extreme amounts of it. And its affecting everyone else who isn’t able to increase their own cash flows. So in essence, while some people are getting richer, a lot of people are actually getting poorer, and the gap is widening. And unfortunately, most institutions, companies, and even governments etc are more concerned with the former and have their needs on mind, as they will be the ones to help move the economy forward, bringing even greater growth and development, etc.

So now the poor (and now poorer) are frustrated in being a system where whatever efforts or actions taken to help them out are not completely adequate, and even with those, the gap is still widening.

But that’s not the only problem.

I sit and ask, how long can this almost dreamlike growth be sustained? Another two years? Five? Maybe 10? There will be a point when certain factors start to crumble, and its not that I don’t have faith in the current economy, its just that the normal rules of economics and history tell you that something will happen, and it just might come all crashing down. And who will be the victim here?

Sure, those who benefited from the whole surge will lose some money, lose some assets, their property values will probably drop. They will get hurt. But more so, the poor will get it the worst. A dying economy with over inflated prices and a below average cash flow just might make it worse.

The growth is unbelievable at the moment; there are investments everywhere; just take a look at some of the headlines in the local newspapers, just to get an idea of how much money is going through the region:

Dubailand taking shape
DUBAI: Widely touted as the Middle East's very own Orlando, Dubailand, a cluster of mega-billion-dollar projects, is gradually emerging across the desert sands of the booming emirate.

$620 million raised by Investcorp
DUBAI: Bahrain-based Investcorp has raised $620 million for its first private equity fund for investors outside the Gulf Arab region, the investment bank said yesterday.

Dubai to invest Dh300 billion: Shaikh Ahmed
DUBAI — Dubai is poised to change the face of global aviation and the logistics industry with investments of more than Dh300 billion over the coming decade, said Shaikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, President of DCA and Chairman and CEO of Emirates Airlines and Group.

The World's $5b Oqyana to begin construction next year
DUBAI — Construction on the $5 billion Oqyana World First development on 20 of "The World" manmade islands will start in summer 2008, the company's COO, Wadad Al Suwahyeh, confirmed, and will take three years to complete.

Airbus scores on $22b GCC ordersDUBAI — Propelled by $22 billion aircraft orders from three Gulf carriers, troubled aircraft maker Airbus SAS pulled out all the stops to claim star billing at Paris Air Show on the first day with total orders worth $30 billion — outselling its US rival Boeing Co. which could only bag $4.42 billion in new orders

And by the way, this is just a small pick from just ONE day of news. Imagine the amount of money flowing through the GCC economy every month, or every year? And besides those, think of the projects blowing up all around us? The Bahrain Financial Harbor, built as the Financial Hub for the region to compete on an international scale, Burj Dubai, the tallest building in the world, the unbelievable number of new investment companies, tourism projects, etc? It’s astounding and the growth is almost dreamlike.

But you never know when it could happen. We need to start being careful before we get hit by a really extreme collapse of one factor of the system, and when that does happen it will escalate and the effects will quickly be felt hard within the region. And as the expats, investors and global companies that were here when the money was here start to leave, all the buildings, tourist projects, investments and construction left will leave us with a huge ghost town. The bubble won’t continue to grow; it’s not a scenario that’s too far from reality.

Cyclone Gonu in Bahrain

Not a long post by any means; the thing is after Gonu hit Oman, there was a bit of uncertainity as to the path it will follow. Will it go past UAE and then turn east to Iran? Will it continue North and hit Qatar and Bahrain? Some said yes, some said no, some said maybe.

Anyway, I was discussing this with a friend a few days ago; I said "There is the possibility that Gonu will hit us".

Just a possibility, but I mentioned it was there, to which he replied "No, it won't"

Me: "There's that chance, how do you know"

Him: "I just know, there is no possible way it will hit us"

Me: "Come on, there's always a small chance of it happening, and what do you know, you don't work in the forecast"

Him: "No, you don't understand. We wont get hit because Bahrain is just THAT boring. We wont get anything as exciting as that happening here!"

Needless to say I couldn't stop laughing for the next 20 minutes

Above the Law

I read this in today's GDN (probably Bahrain's leading English newspaper). This comes from the reader letters section:

Ugly behaviour!
DEAR Yellow Humvee owner, how come I always see your vehicle, I am sure there is only one, it is so ugly, parked illegally?

I have yet to see it properly parked. It is either parked in a handicap reserved spot (Fuddruckers in Adliya), in a no parking zone (i.e. Al Jazira in Zinj) or like I have just seen it at Bahrain Mall almost trying to go through the doors.

Does it come as a mandatory behaviour when you buy an ugly truck like that?

Normand Lachance

Fair enough; I understand this persons frustration. But there is a bit of a bigger issue here, since a LOT of the people living here seem to have the same attitude as the driver of that Humvee. You see it everyday, people parking illegally and blocking the traffic flow of the people behind them, drivers going down the wrong way in a one-way street and then screaming or honking at anyone who comes out their way, speeding way over the speed limit even in the smallest roads with the risk of hitting someone by accident, overtaking the wrong way etc etc.

Sure, a lot of us have driven that way one time or the other; I personally drove like a total jackass for the first year or two after getting my drivers license. It was my "getting familiar with the roads" stage (well, thats what I like to call it anyway. But since then i've grown up, i've seen the nuisance it causes other people, and i've seen some of the dangers as well. I would like to think a lot of the people who start driving understand this after a while of driving.

But no! Some of the people who do this are either fully grown, fathers, or people who have been obviously behind the drivers seat for years. Why do you have to act like such jackasses? Why do people in this part of the world think they own the road, or that they have a sort of "do whatever the hell you want with no sympathy or consideration for other drivers" pass?

Just today morning on my way to work, I drove down a one way road through a little alley. Now when I almost reached the exit of the alley, someone drove into it and faced me. He was obviously driving the wrong way, and all he had to do was reverse his car the odd 2 meters or so, so that I can leave. But he just waited there for me to reverse all the way back out of the alley so that he can get his way!

After a few seconds, he rolled down his window to which I thought he was going to apologize, but no, he started shouting at me to move because he was late for work.

A few points here;
1- YOU'RE late for work, its your problem, leave earlier next time!
2- YOU'RE going down the wrong way, and I have the right of way, so stop blocking the road!
3- EVEN IF neither of us had the right of way, your backing up 2 meters is a lot easier than me backing up a good 30 meters or so down a tight alley!

And they believe they are god's gift to the roads. Mr White Cressida Plate No 14555, if you're reading this, you aren't!

We are not above the law guys. Unfortunately this behavior doesn't apply just to road laws and manners. You see it all over our community; the woman who walks into the bank to withdraw some cash, and at seeing a queue of 10 or 20 people or so decides to bypass them and go directly to the counter and demand to be served before anyone else? Or how about the customer who walks into a busy restaurant, and at being told there are no tables starts shouting at the waitress demanding to be seated? I've seen it, and I continue to see it.

We need to change this behavior; its hindering a lot of development, and is slowly promoting hate between one another. Now when i'm driving in my car, based on the road environment we have, I consider all other cars enemies that are there to take my spot. All customers in a bank other than me are adversaries and I need to get served before them. And so on and so on...

It would be nice if we try to consider other people before acting on our own selfish needs. The world does not revolve around each and every single one of us!

Useful News

Reading the news every morning, watching it on TV, or hearing it on the radio used to have a purpose some time ago. You keep yourself updated with major issues and important topics going on around the world; but it seems as if this has changed. I guess people try to take anything and blow it up into a news story now - here are a few bits and pieces to give you an idea:

Angry squirrel finished off by crutch
Wed Jun 13, 11:00 PM ET

BERLIN - An unusually aggressive squirrel attacked three people in a German town before its last victim finished it off with a crutch, police said Wednesday.

The rodent jumped through a living-room window in Passau, on the Austrian border, on Tuesday and bit its first victim. With the squirrel hanging on by its teeth, the woman ran out into the street, where she managed to shake the animal off.

The squirrel then bit a builder before fleeing into a nearby garden, where it bit a 72-year-old man who eventually killed it with his crutch, police said.

The dead animal was to be tested for rabies.

I'm sure there were tears all around as the squirrel caught its last breath under the "deadly" crutch. Here's an extra bit of laughs; this was actually in "most popular news". Anyway, lets look at some more, something a little more local from the Gulf Daily News:

Mall car park row pair drop charges
NO. 86 Thursday 14th June 2007

AN angry driver came to blows with a security guard after his car was locked in a mall car park late at night.

The Saudi driver parked his car in the Yateem Centre car park in Manama, then went out for the evening.

By the time he returned, after midnight, the car park barriers were down and the guard refused to let him take his car.

They came to blows and both ended up in a police station, a Public Prosecution spokesman said yesterday.

He said police referred the case to the prosecution, but once there the two men agreed to drop allegations of assault, which each had levelled at the other.

I don't know who i'm most disappointed with, the two featured in this story or the article writer who actually thought it was news worthy. And the next article? Well this is just funny (its suprising how stupid some people can be):

Man Tries Escaping Cops By Dangling 23 Stories Up

(CBS) BRONX An astonishing attempted escape from the police in the Bronx Wednesday morning left a suspect dangling from the side of a high-rise, 23 stories above the ground.

It wasn't a typical sighting for New Yorkers walking outside or living across from the Soundview apartment tower.

"I started to think, 'What's wrong? Is he trying to commit suicide or something?'" said Alex Morales, who, along with his wife Patricia witnessed the suspect's crazy antics.

But Francisco Correra Jr. wasn't trying to kill himself. Instead he was trying to escape from police investigating an assault complaint.

"His foot was on the ledge of the window and he was hanging on a childproof bar," Patricia Morales said.

The Morales' were so taken aback by the scene the pulled out their home video camera and recorded the incident from their home across the street.

The drama actually began though several blocks from the building. Police got a call that Correra had assaulted his father and violated an order of protection. They tracked him down to the roof of that building. (

"The police were on top of the roof and trying to convince him to come in. But then he started to scale down to the 22nd floor. But it looks like he got a little panicked and he scaled back to the 23rd floor," Alex Morales said.

Finally. police were able to break through the window guard on the 23rd floor, and pulled Correra in.

"Honestly, I was thinking today was going to be his last day on this earth because I didn't see how he could hold on that long," Patricia said.

Correra, now under arrest, has been charged with assault and violating an order of protection.

Well, he obviously didn't think his plan through.

Bahrain Youth and Jobs

Just listening to the speech yesterday by Bahrain's Minister of Labor made a lot of thoughts rush to my head. He brought up an issue I have been talking about for ages, and that is basically that the Bahraini youth need to get up and step up to job opportunities, rather than sit back, relax, and expect the best jobs and salaries to come their way without doing anything.

Its unfortunate that we have this attitude here in Bahrain. Sure, we have a lot of Bahraini's who put in the effort, who study, who work hard, and push themselves through whatever challenges life faces them with. However, there still many who think that they are God's gift to this country and this world, and expect the best jobs to just land in their laps. I've been saying this for years now; us as Bahraini's expect the government to do everything for us - find a good job which pays very well, provide us with top notch housing, health care, facilities, etc etc etc...

And before anyone starts to argue againt this, please sit back and take a look at this situation! Whether we like it or not, Bahraini people have managed to create a sort of dependancy on the government, and expect everything to be handed to them; its true that some of the other GCC countries help out their citizens a lot more, whether its by guaranteeing them jobs, giving them houses when they get married, bonus payments for no particular reason, etc, but on the other hand, we are not them, and I would have thought most people who have understood this by now, but they haven't.

I've seen demonstrations, riots, etc over people demanding jobs and housing. Now the truth is, there are jobs out there. Its just that these people don't want to work them! Fresh graduates seem to think that coming out of college with a brand new degree will get them a thousand dinar job (approx $2,500/month). You won't get it, get over it! You need to work your way up from the crappy small jobs up to where ever you want to get in life, things won't just happen for you just because you're "Bahraini"

I see a lot of people complain about foreigners brought in to do what are supposed to be "our" jobs. Well, of course! If the foreigner is going to do, twice, three of four times the amount of work you're going to do and have a lot more work experience than you, then why WOULDN'T they be hired in your place?

I graduated from Sharjah, UAE. Straight after graduation, I found a job in Dubai paying 700 dinars a month, plus commissions which used to average another 500 or 600 dinars; in total I was recieving around 1400 monthly, which is an amazing amount.

I worked in Dubai for a few months and decided to move back to Bahrain, to be with family, friends, and back home. Now coming from Dubai and a 1400 dinar salary, I told myself I would be content with around half of that. Think I got it?

I stayed jobless for approx 6 months, and FINALLY I found a job paying around 200 dinars a month. Thats peanuts, and most people in my position decide; "Screw it, i'm not working my butt off for a lousy 200 dinars", but you know what? I took the job. First, it's experience for my CV and sooner or later it will give someone else the motivation to hire me since I have work experience.

3 months later, I got a better job paying around double that. Still not much, but a lot better. Worked very hard at this job and a year later I got my break; another job paying much better, and had very good chances for growth. Of course, if I had just stayed jobless they probably would not have considered me for that post. But I was working, I had some experience and they took me in. I worked hard, moved up along the ranks and within less than two years was a supervisor with what by Bahraini standards is considered a "Really Good" salary.

Would it have worked if I had just stayed home and waited for the right job to fall in my lap? No.

All this while I see other people complain that there are no reasonable jobs, and even when they are offered lower paying jobs, they decline and decide to stay home. Thats not a way to improve; way I see it you have two options - sit home and complain that there are no good jobs, or take any job you find and work your way up.

I chose the second, I really hope the rest of Bahrain do.

I'm not saying Bahrain youth are the only people to blame for the whole unemployment problem we have in Bahrain. Sure, the problem is real and there should be some official departments working on the solution; but this problem isn't one sided. The attitudes need to change, people need to work hard. If we all do this, within time i'm sure we can all get through this problem.



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ARTICLE:

SEIZE YOUR OPPORTUNITY
GULF DAILY NEWS: 29 May, 2007



MANAMA: Bahraini youngsters who think the world owes them a living were blasted by Labour Minister Dr Majeed Al Alawi yesterday.

"You want the government to give you houses, you want the best salaries, you all want to start at the top of the ladder," he said.

"But what you forget is that you also have to make an effort. You cannot start at the top. You have to work your way up."

Many young Bahrainis are "misfits" in the working world, outpaced by foreigners who single-handedly do the work of three or four of them, he told the Young Arab Leaders Summit, at the Ritz-Carlton Bahrain Hotel and Spa.

But Dr Al Alawi said Bahraini youngsters were not solely to blame for what he called "disaster in the making".

"We as a nation have to take a large part of the blame. We have been complacent to let it reach this stage," he said. Dr Al Alawi urged youngsters to seize the opportunities that surround them.